Will ‘AI devices’ replace our smartphones?

This week, the New York Times reminded the world that Jony Ive is working with Sam Altman to build some sort of ‘AI-powered’ device.

Apparently, the boys want to utilize ‘A.I. to create a computing experience that is less socially disruptive than the iPhone.’ It is a claim reminiscent of the Humane AI Pin. Or of that other high-profile fail, the Rabbit R1. Add to that future failures like the Compass or Friend AI necklaces. And why not throw in new Meta AR glasses ...

… and you could really begin to wonder: are smartphones on their way out?


No. But it makes for a great cocktail party discussion. And it’s interesting to break down why not.

Why and why not?

It’s not hard to see why the excitement. ChatGPT took the world by storm. LLMs and their semblance of intelligence reignited an old dream (with a flamethrower): the virtual assistant.

You can just see the sci fi come to life: by talking to an AI assistant, letting it be your eyes, or putting it to work as a schizophrenic army of agents, we finally have technology that is human, and is working for us (and not against us).

Now, if you really believe that, I’m sorry, but you are in for a big disappointment. Take GPT-assistants out of these highly staged (and quite unrealistic) demo settings, and they will fail considerably. That is a problem. People like technology that is reliable. They especially like technology that doesn’t make them look like an idiot. LLMs are cool information technology, just not multi-purpose assistants.

The excitement is also there on a business level. The amount of investment capital going into the AI space is unprecedented by an order of magnitude.

Companies like Google or Meta can afford to play the long game. So why the hell not aim for the sky, and claim you’re working towards the next and ultimate device.

Especially, and this is important, given the lessons learned from the previous paradigm shift. Even though they became multi billion dollar industries in their own right, companies like Meta hate that they have to abide by landlord’s rules. They loathe that Apple and Google own mobile, so they won’t make that mistake again. Even if it costs them billions in option value.

But probably the biggest reason smartphones won’t leave our lives anytime soon, is that they’re pretty darn useful. Sure, asking AI a question is nice. But so is watching video, or typing away in a group chat. (I refuse to do voice clips.) Interfaces, don’t you just love them?

You could even argue it’s precisely because the smartphone is such a perfect device, that innovation is seemingly gone, and everyone is looking for The Next Big Thing.

So … do AI-devices (whatever form they will take) hold no potential? I am not saying that. They could. But probably as extensions for the smartphone. Not as full-on replacements.

The Ray-Ban x Meta glasses are very sticky. And just imagine what will happen if all AirPods in existence suddenly get a version of Siri that is actually capable. That will be useful. Just not always. Or for everything.

That’s why we have smartphones.